
4Q26 contract prices: what the TrendForce outlook means for buyers
TrendForce's 30 September 2026 outlook projected conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% QoQ and NAND Flash up 15-20% in 4Q26. A buyer's reading of those numbers.
Read moreNew DDR4 production is winding down through 2026. A practical checklist for last-time-buy quantities, part authentication and a realistic DDR5 migration decision.

DDR4 is not disappearing overnight, but new production is ending. Industry coverage of the 2026 end-of-life cycle reports Samsung stopping DDR4 order intake in June 2025 and pushing its full exit into 2026, SK hynix cutting output in step with the shift to DDR5 and HBM, and Micron holding to its EOL plan. The cause is structural rather than cyclical: HBM and server DDR5 consume more wafer capacity per bit and carry far higher margins, so fabs have little reason to keep legacy lines running. Buyers should plan for a permanent contraction, not wait for prices to return to the old curve.
The practical tool is a last-time buy sized against remaining product life. Audit every DDR4 part in the active BOM — density, rank, package, temperature grade, UDIMM or SODIMM — and separate die-level EOL from module-level EOL, because the former is harder to substitute. On industrial and embedded platforms whose memory controller supports only DDR4, a DDR5 move is a board and processor redesign, not a DIMM swap; a 12-24 month buffer is the usual answer. Where a platform refresh is already planned within 18-24 months, pull that redesign forward and design it for DDR5.
Post-LTB supply carries a counterfeit risk that grows with the shortage: modules re-marked from DDR4-2133 to 3200, 4 GB parts sold as 8 GB, commercial-grade parts relabelled as industrial. Ask for SPD verification against the claimed part number, burn-in at rated speed and temperature, and a certificate of conformance with date code and chain of custody. NandCell still lists DDR3 and DDR4 UDIMM and SODIMM alongside DDR5; send the BOM and we will state plainly which densities remain available and which we cannot supply.
Related: NandCell product catalogue · TAA origin and documentation · Buyer answers · Request a quotation

TrendForce's 30 September 2026 outlook projected conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% QoQ and NAND Flash up 15-20% in 4Q26. A buyer's reading of those numbers.
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